');background-position-x:100%;background-position-y:40%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-size:12px 6px;content:" ";height:6px;pointer-events:none;position:absolute;right:0;top:38%;width:12px}.LanguageSwitcher svg{height:var(--flag-height);width:30px}.LanguageSwitcher .current-language{margin-left:.5rem}.LanguageSwitcher .LanguageSwitcher-select{bottom:0;cursor:pointer;left:0;opacity:0;outline:0;position:absolute;top:0;width:100%}.drawer{background-color:var(--background-color);bottom:0;position:fixed;right:0;top:0;transform:translateX(100%);transform-origin:100% 0;transition:transform .5s ease;width:75%;z-index:99}@media screen and (min-width:600px){.drawer{display:none}}@media screen and (max-width:600px){.drawer.active{box-shadow:0 0 10px #000;transform:none}}.navigation-head{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:1.5rem}.navigation-head .top{align-items:center;display:flex;gap:1.5rem}.navigation-head .top .logo-certificate{width:100%}.navigation-head .top 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Une courbe des taux allemande trop inversée ? Passer au contenu Donner de la valeur à vos valeurs
France (FR) Belgique (FR) Luxembourg (FR) Suisse (FR) France (FR) Une courbe des taux allemande trop inversée ?
Une courbe des taux allemande trop inversée ? - 16 décembre 2024 Accédez à nos différentes thématiques :
Alors que la BCE confirme sa politique de baisse des taux d’intérêt à court terme, les taux allemands à long-terme ont désormais du mal à suivre. Les déterminants habituels de la courbe des taux allemandes suggèrent en effet que celle-ci est probablement trop inversée, ce qui réduit l’attrait des Bunds comme couverture d’un portefeuille d’actions.
Malgré quatre baisses des taux de la BCE depuis juin 2024, la courbe des taux de référence de la zone euro reste nettement inversée : à 2,2%, les taux allemands à 10 ans se situe en effet toujours 65 points de base en-dessous de l’Euribor 3 mois. A première vue, cette situation d’inversion pourrait sembler logique puisque les taux à long terme fournissent une représentation approximative du niveau moyen des taux courts anticipés. Or, à un peu moins de 3%, les taux à court terme demeurent supérieurs au niveau jugé « normal » par la plupart des observateurs (entre 1,5% et 2,5% suivant les sources). Un modèle comparant le niveau des taux courts à sa moyenne des cinq dernières années, produit un résultat similaire : à 2.85%, l’Euribor 3 mois se situe toujours au-dessus de sa moyenne mobile de 1,3%, ce qui pourrait expliquer la courbe inversée (graphique 1).
Si l’on suit cette seule logique, la courbe des taux allemandes ne redeviendra « normale », avec des taux longs supérieurs aux taux courts, que lorsque ces derniers passeront en-dessous des taux courts jugés normaux par le marché. L’analyse est cependant insuffisante, car d’autres facteurs sont à l’œuvre. Sur longue période, on observe généralement une prime de terme, ce qui implique que les taux longs sont la plupart du temps plus élevés que les taux courts, même quand les taux courts sont un peu au-dessus de la normale. Cette prime semble avoir aujourd’hui disparue. De plus, les taux longs européens subissent aussi l’influence des taux longs américains. En ajoutant les taux américains comme variable dans un modèle de régression linéaire, celui-ci suggère que la courbe des taux allemandes devrait être aujourd’hui plate, donc avec un Bund 10 ans à 2,85% (graphique 2). Le modèle suggère en outre que l’écart entre la courbe des taux actuelle et la courbe des taux théorique est le plus élevé de l’histoire de la zone euro, à la seule exception de la fin de l’année 2008 pendant laquelle le niveau des taux monétaires était perturbé par la crise bancaire.
Le niveau très bas des taux longs allemands est donc difficilement explicable à l’aune des variables classiques : niveau des taux courts, logique des anticipations, prime de terme et niveau des taux longs américains. D’autres éléments propres à la zone euro jouent donc probablement, dont le statut d’obligations refuges des obligations allemandes, statut renforcé récemment par la crise politique et budgétaire française. Les craintes d’une récession en Europe expliquent aussi certainement pourquoi les investisseurs surpayent les obligations allemandes. Pour nous, cela signifie que si la croissance tient en Europe et que les taux longs américains ne baissent plus, les taux allemands ont davantage de marge de hausse que de baisse au niveau actuel de 2,2%. Cette asymétrie retire aux Bund une partie significative de leur attrait en tant que couverture contre une baisse des actions provoquée par une hypothétique récession européenne. Nous continuons donc pour l’instant à préférer l’investissement monétaire aux obligations refuges dans la partie « sans risque » de nos allocations, comme nous le faisons depuis la fin de l’année 2021.